Mandevu: five days in UPND, straight to the ticket, genius or political insult?

The case of Adrian Banda’s miracle adoption and Christopher Shakafuswa’s surprise benching.

Zambian politics has once again reminded us that loyalty is admirable, but apparently optional when elections are involved.

Adrian Banda rejoined the UPND on 2 October. Five days later, he was adopted as the party’s candidate for the Mandevu parliamentary by-election.

Five days. Some people spend five days waiting for a bank loan. Banda spent five days in the UPND and got a parliamentary ticket.

Meanwhile, Christopher Shakafuswa, the incumbent Mandevu MP, a familiar face in the constituency and the man who had already carried the UPND flag in the August election, has been left watching from the political touchline.

The obvious question is: Was Shakafuswa betrayed, or has the UPND simply decided that politics is about winning rather than rewarding loyalty?

The case for Banda

To be fair to the UPND, Banda is not some political tourist who arrived yesterday. He previously contested in Mandevu and, in the August election, was among the serious contenders. The election was eventually nullified after the disruption at the results-totalling centre, forcing a fresh poll.

So the UPND may have looked at the numbers and concluded that Banda has something extremely valuable in politics: a personal vote.

If Banda can attract voters even without a major party behind him, why fight him when you can put him on your side? That is not betrayal. That is political arithmetic.

In fact, it is the sort of calculation political parties make when they want to win rather than hand out medals for long service.

But what about Shakafuswa?

This is where things become uncomfortable. Shakafuswa was not plucked from nowhere. He was the incumbent MP and had already contested under the UPND banner.

If years of political association, an established profile and previous service can be overtaken in five days by a returning politician, one wonders what message this sends to the party’s loyalists.

The message could be brutally simple: Bring us votes and we will love you. Bring us fewer votes and we will appreciate your loyalty from a safe distance.

That may be excellent electoral strategy. It is not necessarily excellent party-building.

Is Banda unbeatable?

That is the million-kwacha question. There is currently no evidence that Banda is unbeatable in Mandevu. He is clearly competitive. But competitive is not the same thing as invincible.

And this is where the UPND’s decision deserves scrutiny.

The party is already in government. It has the advantage of incumbency, national visibility and party machinery. In a by-election, one could reasonably argue that UPND did not need a political superhero. It needed a credible candidate backed by a powerful political machine.

So why take the risk of sidelining an incumbent and adopting someone who had only just returned to the party?

The obvious answer is that the UPND believes Banda can bring something that party structures cannot manufacture: votes that belong to Banda himself.

If that calculation is correct, the UPND may have made a very smart move. If it is wrong, the party may have sacrificed loyalty for a political mirage.

The real test

The November 5 election will settle the argument.

If Banda wins comfortably, the decision will suddenly be described as visionary. Five days in the party will become “strategic reintegration.” His previous independent run will become evidence of “grassroots popularity.” And everyone will suddenly understand why the UPND did what it did.

But if he loses, expect a different vocabulary. People will ask why a governing party with established structures, an incumbent candidate and experienced local politicians felt it necessary to chase a candidate who had only just walked back through the door.

That is politics. The same decision can look like genius before an election and madness after it.

The verdict

Was Shakafuswa betrayed? Politically, perhaps. Strategically, not necessarily.

The UPND is under no obligation to reward loyalty if it genuinely believes another candidate has a better chance of winning. But neither should we assume Banda is unbeatable simply because the party chose him.

The UPND has made a gamble: personal popularity over political seniority. Now Mandevu will decide whether that was brilliant strategy or simply a case of the UPND falling in love with the latest political shiny object.

One thing is certain: in Zambian politics, five days is apparently enough time to rejoin a party, get adopted and become the man everyone must now beat.

Loyalty may take years/months to build, but a party ticket can apparently take five days.

Will the decision prove to be right or wrong? Let’s get our popcorn, sit back and watch as the super story unfolds.

I remain your friend and brother.

By Tobias Banda, Immediate Past Independent Parliamentary Candidate, Roma Constituency

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