Former Energy Minister Yamfwa Mukanga has told Zambians to start preparing now for possible load-shedding in 2027, after the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) cut the water allocated for power generation at Kariba Dam by more than a third. ZRA has allocated 23 billion cubic metres…

Former Energy Minister Yamfwa Mukanga has told Zambians to start preparing now for possible load-shedding in 2027, after the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) cut the water allocated for power generation at Kariba Dam by more than a third. ZRA has allocated 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water for power generation next year, down from 36 BCM in 2026. The water will be shared equally between ZESCO Limited and the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), with each utility receiving 11.5 BCM. That means 13 BCM less water will pass through the turbines on both banks of the Zambezi. Mr Mukanga says Zambians should not be lulled by assurances that the lights will stay on.

Speaking in an interview in Lusaka, Mr Mukanga said the reduced allocation was bound to affect electricity generation, given how heavily Zambia still relies on hydropower. He said citizens should not be misled by claims that the country would escape load-shedding. In his view, households and businesses that wait for the power cuts to begin will pay the highest price. He urged them to plan ahead so they can soften the blow.

“Citizens must prepare in advance for possible power cuts rather than wait until loadshedding begins, so they could minimize its impact,” Mr Mukanga said.

He called on Government to ensure that, if rationing comes, electricity is shared fairly, with consumers receiving equal hours of supply. He said fair distribution was essential to limit the damage to businesses, which suffered heavily in the last power crisis. Mr Mukanga also challenged Government to publish figures showing exactly how much the country has invested in solar energy. He said it was not enough to keep talking about the need to diversify power generation. The public, he argued, deserved numbers.

ZRA acting chief executive Peter Kapinga said the cut was based on forecasts from the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Namibia. The forum pointed to below-normal rainfall across much of southern Zambia and Zimbabwe during the 2026/27 season. Mr Kapinga warned that strong El Niño conditions and poor rains would put renewed pressure on the lake. He said inflows from the 2025/26 rainy season had improved water levels, but only temporarily. The outlook for the coming year, he said, was far less favourable.

“The authority projects the lake will end 2027 at 476.80 metres, with just 5.83 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 9 percent live storage,” Mr Kapinga said.

That projection is the sharpest warning in the statement, and it gives weight to Mr Mukanga’s caution. It would leave the lake holding less usable water at the end of 2027 than the 8.25 BCM it held at this time last year. As of mid-October 2026, Lake Kariba stood at 480.65 metres above sea level and held 23.77 BCM of usable water, compared with 477.34 metres a year earlier. ZRA expects the lake to close 2026 with 16.24 BCM of usable water, or 25.10 percent live storage, before the tighter limits take effect. The recovery Zambians have enjoyed this year could be wiped out within 15 months if the rains fail.

Mr Kapinga said the authority would carry out daily monitoring of the lake. It will also hold joint technical committee meetings with ZESCO and ZPC to make sure both utilities stay within their approved allocations. Kariba has been the backbone of electricity supply for both countries since 1960. The weather forecasts offer little comfort. The Zambia Meteorological Department has warned of a Super El Niño in the 2026/27 farming season, with Eastern Province provincial meteorological officer Daniel Mumbo saying soils would only hold enough moisture for planting by mid-December.

Government can point to some progress on the very question Mr Mukanga has raised. Zambia’s installed solar capacity has crossed 1,027.5 megawatts, up from 188 megawatts in 2024, and now makes up about 21.76 percent of the country’s total installed capacity of 4,722.3 megawatts. Projects such as the 136-megawatt Itimpi II Solar Plant in Kitwe add electricity that does not depend on rain, and Government is targeting 10,000 megawatts by 2031. What has not been laid out is the full investment bill behind that growth, which is the figure Mr Mukanga is demanding. Whether solar can carry the load if Kariba runs low is the test the coming rainy season will set.