The 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 Agenda, also called the Grow […]

The 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 Agenda, also called the Grow Zambia Agenda, is President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic transformation vision defined by eight numeric targets: 10,000MW of energy, 10 million tonnes of maize, 5 million tourist arrivals, 3 million tonnes of copper, 3 million tonnes of soya beans, 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of sugar and US$1 billion in beef exports.

 A check on the agenda by the Zambian Business Times (ZBT) revealed that five of the eight targets are agriculture-based, making agriculture the de facto special-purpose vehicle carrying over 62% of the entire agenda.

Meanwhile, while 10,000MW of energy is expected to support irrigation and agro-processing and 3 million tonnes of copper could strengthen foreign exchange earnings, the targets for maize, soya beans, wheat, sugar and beef place much of the agenda’s production and job-creation expectations on agriculture.

 The current figures of more than 4,800MW of installed electricity capacity, a 5.1 million-tonne maize harvest and copper production exceeding 800,000 tonnes show the scale of the ambition, raising questions about whether a sector constrained by high input costs and productivity challenges can carry such a large share of national economic transformation.

Speaking in an interview with ZBT, economic expert, Kelvin Chisanga said agriculture is central to achieving inclusive economic growth because of its contribution to production, employment and the performance of key macroeconomic indicators.

“If you look at the productive targets, agriculture is getting more weight, with 10 million tonnes of maize, one million tonnes of wheat and sugar, and the one billion dollars in beef exports,” said Chisanga.

He added that agriculture has also helped ease inflationary pressures and supported employment, although many people working in the sector continued to earn relatively low incomes.

Chisanga argued that Zambia can unlock more value from agriculture by increasing commercial production and attracting greater private-sector participation, particularly as farmer’s face rising input costs despite the country’s reported bumper maize harvest.

“The only way to make this sector more vibrant is to commercialise it and ensure there is greater participation from the private sector, because that is how we can begin to change the narrative,” he said.

However, Chisanga cautioned that expanding private-sector participation must not undermine national food security, warning that buyers offering higher prices than the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) can affect the availability and affordability of food locally.

 He said the country needs to balance profitable markets for farmers with sufficient domestic food supplies, supported by adequate production and proper storage facilities to prevent shortages that could fuel inflation.

Chisanga noted that government should therefore strengthen the agricultural market by encouraging private investment while improving productivity and ensuring that farmers could earn better returns from their produce.

He told ZBT that the challenge for the Grow Zambia Agenda is whether Zambia can turn its ambitious production targets into higher farmer incomes, more jobs and affordable food, while ensuring that agriculture’s central role is matched by the financing, infrastructure and market reforms needed to sustain growth.

Article by Philip Sinkala

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